A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
